Marakon Commentary

Hydrogen is going to take 25% of all oil demand by 2050

July 20, 2021

Latest predictions by BOA re. hydrogen’s role in the energy transition speaks to the level of excitement building behind this “old” technology that has found “new” footing; however we are still a long way off commercial viability even with the predictions of up to 60% reduction in production costs as early as 2025. Before COE’s jump in;  Five simple questions (that are not simple to answer) could go a long way to ensuring enterprise success in demonstrating technical and commercial viability of this important potential energy source to help address the reality of our collective climate challenges;

1)  What is the role of hydrogen in the long-term enterprise strategy and is the pathway for development clear and coherent?

2) How does hydrogen compare to alternatives? Is the hydrogen investment case clear and compelling relative to alternatives that might create the same outcome in the context of the longer-term strategy?

3) Is it better to be a fast follower? Who else is pursuing similar investments, and what are the trade-offs of moving faster to lead the market versus being a fast follower?

4) Is internal/external momentum driving decisions? To what extent is decision-making influenced by internal enthusiasm, lobbying and momentum? Is this potentially clouding objectivity?

5) Where should the focus be along the value chain? What do the current assets and capabilities imply about where to focus?

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