US electricity systems are entering a period of elevated reliability risk as load growth from data centers, industrial onshoring, and electrification outpaces the development of new generation, fuel infrastructure, and transmission. Reliability risk is also shifting toward winter and nighttime hours, when fuel systems face their greatest constraints and traditional planning assumptions are least effective.
In this white paper, the authors evaluate the reliability interactions between offshore wind and natural gas using probabilistic resource adequacy modeling, fuel-deliverability analysis, and case studies in ISO-NE and NYISO. The analysis finds that natural gas and offshore wind contribute to reliability in different and complementary ways.
- Natural gas provides flexible, dispatchable capacity across a wide range of system conditions but is increasingly constrained by pipeline headroom, supply-chain limits, and permitting challenges.
- Offshore wind produces its highest output during winter and overnight periods, when natural gas systems are most stressed, and materially reduces reliance on oil-fired generation during cold weather events.
The results show that each resource becomes more effective at reducing reliability risk when the other is present, although marginal reliability contributions decline as capacity increases. Neither resource alone fully offsets emerging reliability risks under realistic infrastructure constraints. Together, the findings highlight how resource mix, seasonal performance, and fuel availability shape reliability outcomes under rapid load growth.
