Client issue
A leading pharmaceutical company sought support from CRA Life Sciences experts in analyzing the patient, health system, and innovation implications of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program (MDPNP), with particular attention to the differing impacts on small- and large- molecule drugs. The company sought to identify policy recommendations and messaging that could mitigate the unintended consequences of the MDPNP’s impact on small-molecule medicines.
CRA approach
• Forecasted small- and large-molecule products most likely to be subject to the Maximum Fair Price (MFP) in 2027 and 2028, following the approach set out in the IRA policy language and by CMS.
• Modelled the expected revenue impact of different types of molecules using Medicare spending data.
• Evaluated the implications for clinical-trial investment and patient access associated with the expected revenue impacts on selected products.
Client impact
• Quantified the potential revenue and clinical-trial investment implications of the MDPNP’s timing of MFP selection on small molecules, in comparison to large molecules.
• Tailored implications to the therapy areas of focus.
• Provided quantitative evidence to support the client’s policy position on the MDPNP’s “pill penalty.”
