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CRA H2Risk

Hydrogen Project Economics Risk Assessment Model

CRA’s Hydrogen Project Economics Risk Assessment Model (CRA H2Risk) is an artificial intelligence-driven, life-cycle emission assessment model that can help both financiers and project developers assess the probability of (i) achieving the full $3/kg production tax credit afforded by the IRA in the USA and (ii) qualifying as a renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBO) in the EU. Leveraging CRA’s proprietary power system modeling suite, CRA H2Risk will allow you to forecast the potential life-cycle emissions associated with operating a clean hydrogen production asset on an hourly basis through the project’s life cycle and better assess the value of a proposed project. Critically, CRA H2Risk will help you assess the uncertainty associated with your project and the range of possible outcomes to better understand your risk exposure.

Key users of the tool include: 

  • Financiers looking to assess the valuation of a potential clean hydrogen production investment 
  • Project Developers looking for a third-party to help assess the potential emissions associated with the operation of their clean hydrogen production asset and develop an optimal portfolio to maximize the possibility of qualifying for the PTC and RFNBO status. 

Model mechanics

Outputs from CRA H2Risk are driven by CRA’s proprietary power systems modeling suite which provide stochastically rigorous forecasts of: 

  1. Weather data: Changes in weather patterns will drive differences in output from a proposed renewable resource within a specific region.
  2. Grid emissions: As supply and demand dynamics on the power grid change over time, emissions for power consumed from the grid will similarly change. 

What you get

Expertise: CRA brings a wealth of experience in statistical and fundamental market modeling. We can help you understand your risks to best position your project for success.

Outputs from CRA H2Risk fall within two categories: (i) Risk Assessment and (ii) Portfolio Optimization 

  • Risk assessment: Given the proposed architecture and operating mode of a clean hydrogen production project, CRA H2Risk will allow you to assess forecasted potential emissions associated with producing clean hydrogen from the proposed asset. Pairing these forecasted hourly emissions rates with the emissions thresholds laid out by the IRA and EU Delegated Acts, we will be able to detail uncertainty surrounding the total PTC available to the project and whether the produced commodity could meet RFNBO thresholds based on its operational characteristics.
  • Portfolio optimization: Given how a proposed electrolyzer asset will operate, CRA H2Risk will be able to determine the potential portfolio of renewable supply required to maximize the probability that the project qualifies for the full PTC throughout its life cycle. 
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